Orbit Post Sitemap
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 US Treasury yields rise, briefly discussing the impact on the crypto space
Recently, long-term US Treasury yields surged to high levels, and market expectations for an October rate hike have somewhat eased, with Federal Reserve officials holding differing views.
Simply put, when US Treasury yields are high, funds tend to flow into the bond market for safety, leaving risk assets like crypto with less capital support.
If inflation data rebounds and rate hike expectations rise again, BTC and ETH are likely to face pressure;
If inflation falls, funds are more willing to flow back, giving the market a chance to rebound.
Upcoming PCE and non-farm payroll data releases will increase market volatility. #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 $BTC 🌤️ Tonight's non-farm payrolls will be released, the market during the day will be dull, just focus on these three
Tonight the non-farm payrolls and PCE data come out, the daytime market is the calm before the storm. No need to watch too many things, just keep an eye on these three positions.
$BTC near 83454, has been sideways for five days, tonight is the moment to choose direction. The 83500 to 85000 range has been ground to the limit, ETF continuous net inflows are supporting from below, but big money is waiting for the data and not moving. Most likely the volume will continue to shrink and grind during the day, focus on tonight's data—if dovish, bounce back above 85000; if hawkish, break 83500 down to 82000.
$ENA near 0.252, the second day of pullback. It rose 20% in the past two days and is giving back today, 0.25 is being repeatedly tested. Its interest-earning logic is not much related to the overall market, spot plus futures hedging to earn funding fees, it can earn interest even in a bear market. If tonight's non-farm causes a panic drop to around 0.22, that's a golden pit, those who dare to catch it will thank themselves later. No need to move this position during the day.
$DOGE 0.09395, meme coin is the leading indicator of tonight's sentiment. If DOGE doesn't fall during the day, it means market confidence hasn't dissipated. If the data release tonight causes a market rebound, DOGE, as the meme with the strongest consensus, will bounce fastest; if the market crashes, DOGE will run fastest. 0.09 is the bottom line, just hold it during the day.
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 Don't mess around during the day, wait for the data for Bitcoin, watch the pits for ENA, watch sentiment for DOGE, move only after the non-farm release tonight.$SOL In the afternoon, I bought some SOL when it didn't drop further
If it can't go below 107, it will still rise, and after passing 120, it will take off again 🛫️
SOL benefits from multiple positive factors resonating together: continuous capital inflow from ETFs, institutional staking and locking; RWA + cross-border payment implementation, mainnet technology upgrades; combined with expectations for the US crypto bill, ecosystem applications continue to expand. The market follows the overall trend, remember to take profits in batches at the resistance level of 125.
#SOL延续涨势，资金与链上需求共振 $BTC Tonight's PCE data will determine the short-term trend, with Bitcoin continuing to grind within a range.
Focus on the PCE inflation data at 20:30 tonight, which directly affects whether the Fed will raise rates in October.
The market sentiment is currently split; the previous rate hike probability was close to 70%, now it has dropped to around 50%.
- If inflation data is high, rate hike expectations will rise, and Bitcoin is likely to face downward pressure;
- If inflation cools down, the negative news will be priced in, and the market may rebound to test upper resistance.
Non-farm payroll data will follow to further test the market.
This is a typical pre-news volatile market with many spikes, so avoid heavy positions betting on direction.
$BTC is currently consolidating sideways on the 4-hour chart, stuck around 83630, with the range tightly controlled.
Key support is at 82470 below, resistance at 84955 above; without volume, breaking this range is difficult.
Trading strategy: If there’s no good entry point, just watch.
If you want to trade, enter and exit quickly.
Consider shorting on rebounds to 85000-85500; watch support strength near 82500 on pullbacks.
Volatility will spike instantly when data is released, so reduce leverage and avoid holding positions. #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 $OKB
OKB is approaching the intraday high; can the platform token premium continue to hold?
This morning, OKX spot 24-hour range was approximately 117.3–122, with a trading volume of about 13.56 million USDT, and the current price around 121. A relatively stable trend may attract risk-averse rotation, but long-term pricing still depends on whether trading activity, ecosystem usage, and supply mechanisms can generate sustained demand.
If the 4-hour close surpasses 122 with volume expanding simultaneously, buying pressure may push the range higher. If it falls below 117.3, or if platform activity increases without driving token demand, I would lower my expectation for the continuation of the premium. ASML rose about 3.6% in one day to around 1842, UBS reiterated a Buy rating with a target of 2350 euros; don't treat the rating and narrative resonance as a battle cry.
Observed: On 9/29, closed around 1834.39, up about 3.56%, intraday high about 1841.77, low about 1800.40; previous close about 1771.41.
The catalyst is on one side UBS maintaining Buy with a target price of €2350, and on the other side Anthropic's prospectus promising about $518 billion in cloud/computing/infrastructure spending over the next year. Dutch ASML rose about 3.6% that day.
The next focus is on the Q3 earnings report on 10/14; some institutions are still betting that next year's revenue guidance can exceed 30% year-over-year, so the story is far from short.
Simply put: The AI lithography leader is being lifted by both the target price and the computing power spending story, but with the nonfarm PCE weekly rate still firm, a single bullish day does not mean the valuation is safe, nor should analyst target prices be taken as the local floor.
My view: When good news piles up, it’s more likely to be priced in early. I’m not sounding the boarding horn yet; I’ll observe first and not chase the high.
I’ll just keep observing for now and firmly won’t chase this jump; if it fails, watch for a renewed break below the daily low around 1800, or if it can’t bounce past about 1842 before discussing the rhythm again.
Do you prefer it to first stabilize above 1842 before following, or to pull back near 1800 before buying in?
$ASML $TSM $AVGO
#ThisWeekKeyNonfarmAndPCEData
#US10YearYieldHitsHighestSince2007GoldDropsOver3%Just took a couple of bites of food, opened the market to check, and today's market is really something else. The major index is warming up, but some are happy while others are worried.
$BTC
Current price 83,778, up 0.84%. It was still stuck at 82,726 in the middle of the night, then stubbornly pulled back above 83,700 this morning. But don't get too happy too soon, the iron top at 84,544 just won't break through, and the 30-year US Treasury yield at 5.6% is still pressing down. It rises a bit and falls twice as much; is the main force just missing my small contribution? Whenever I think about going long, it crashes; when I think about cutting losses, it rallies. A dull knife cutting meat, really frustrating.
$XDP
Current price 0.022613, down 7.59%. The only standout big loser against the trend. Binance Alpha just launched a few days ago, and the airdrop chips are being smashed mercilessly. The brothers who got liquidated on contracts are probably out on the rooftop catching some air now. The script of "peak right after listing" is playing out again; watching it hurts for those who chased in. This thing won't rise unless it's completely smashed down.
$GRASS
Current price 0.7265, up 6.17%. The brightest star in the market today, Multicoin shouts "AI inference data layer is undervalued," and the funds are really showing respect. But don't get carried away, this coin has dropped 91% since listing, from 3.89 all the way down to 0.17, no good news can save it. Every time it looks like it will toughen up, it immediately turns into a jerk, disappointing expectations. Whether this 6% rise today is enough to withstand the PCE hit tonight, it's hard to say.
If it stays like this today, I really might tearfully cut my losses
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 BTC shows a short-term rebound on the 15-minute chart, with the price rising from a low of 82850 to 83634, accompanied by an increase in trading volume, indicating a short-term buying recovery. The previous high at 84544 forms strong resistance, and the liquidation zone around 84800 accumulates a large number of short stop-loss orders, representing the current core risk level for short positions.
From the capital perspective, BlackRock's IBIT has continuously accumulated large positions, but the recent net inflow scale of ETFs has significantly declined, combined with large holders transferring chips to exchanges, intensifying the long-short struggle. The Federal Reserve's expectation of an interest rate hike in October remains high, and interest rate expectations continue to exert medium- to long-term pressure."BTC: Funds Are Coming In, Leverage Is Retreating"
BTC is currently consolidating around 83,500, with sentiment leaning warm but not euphoric: 47% bullish, 39% neutral, 14% bearish. The capital flow shows highlights—spot ETF net inflow reached $2.39 billion in a single week, the strongest since last October, and the net inflow for the year has turned positive at about $1 billion. Saylor signals a long-term outlook again, stating the buying window is open until 2035; long-term holders' cost is about $62,700, open interest contracts have dropped nearly 20%, returning to March lows, indicating leverage bubbles have somewhat deflated.
However, risks are tougher. The 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.28%, and the 30-year yield to 5.6%, with rising risk-free rates suppressing risk assets. Altcoin spot trading volume has soared to nearly 4 times that of BTC, historically often appearing near local tops. Large holders have unrealized profits of about $14.09 billion, with a profit rate of 22.66%, making selling pressure sensitive; after breaking below 83,000, over $500 million and 129,000 people were liquidated, indicating dense stop-losses below.
Strategically, do not chase rapid rises; wait for pullback confirmation before buying. $BTC $ETH $SOL
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 When both safe-haven assets and risk assets fall simultaneously, the market is signaling not panic, but consistency.
$BTC has dropped below $84,000, ETH faces even heavier selling pressure, and gold is also plunging in sync. Although the logic behind these three differs, they are moving in the same direction — which often indicates that liquidity is contracting overall, rather than just a single market venting emotions.
Gold usually diverges from crypto trends, but this time they are falling together, suggesting investors may be liquidating all convertible assets to cope with some pressure not yet surfaced. This synchronicity is more alarming than any single candlestick.
High volatility itself doesn’t provide answers; it only exposes cracks. The truly important changes often happen quietly under the cover of sharp price swings.
The most dangerous move right now is rushing to buy the dip or chase shorts. Expanding the timeframe and observing the interplay between the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, and capital flows is more meaningful than focusing on minute charts.
The signals are present, but the script is unclear. Stay alert, manage your positions, and wait for the market to speak the next word itself.
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 $AT Damn it! This market is really crazy. Retail investors just rushed into Bitcoin and then ran away quickly. Once the small funds withdraw, altcoins immediately follow with a shakeout. AT was dumped to 0.1552, clearly a manipulative player using sentiment to kill off floating chips.
Looking at the chart, there is support around 0.155, volume hasn't collapsed, but panic selling is happening. I've seen this kind of shakeout many times; the more no one dares to catch it, the easier it is to rebound.
My idea is simple: ambush around 0.1552, set stop loss at 0.148, and accept the loss if it breaks. Don't go heavy, don't get emotional.
Ambushing is all about taking what others abandon. Check the card below for your own position control. 👇👇👇
This content is only my personal review and does not constitute investment advice. Always use stop loss.Watching the market, BTC is at 83777, ETH at 2695, just sideways grinding—why no movement?
The whole market is waiting for tonight's 20:30 US Core PCE, personal spending, and final GDP figures.
To put it bluntly, tonight is a do-or-die moment.
Core PCE is expected to remain at 3.3%, same as the previous value, but the monthly personal spending forecast jumps from 0.2% to 0.8%. If consumption data is really that strong, inflation won't be contained, and the Fed's rate cut will be completely off the table.
No more nonsense, here’s the battle plan for tonight:
1. Before the data release, absolutely no trades! No betting on size, no touching contracts; when pros fight, retail investors rushing in just become cannon fodder.
2. If data is good (Core PCE below 3.3%)
— Directly chase longs on the right side, BTC breaks 84000 with volume, target 88000; ETH holds above 2700, target 3000. Buy spot in batches.
3. If data is bad (PCE remains high, consumption explodes)
— Decisively bearish, BTC breaks below 83000, target 80000; ETH loses 2650, retests 2500. I will patiently wait for panic selling, then buy spot in batches.
No greed, no fear, no guessing size. Tonight, just focus on the 20:30 data release and volume changes, follow the trend, control your hands, wait for direction, and just act!
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 $CT I don't understand the use of this kind of coin, the project field is insanely competitive, the technical content is not high, all are made with the ERC4626 standard, all the vault stuff, like the aggregator finance in exchanges before, and still pretending to be a proper project, it's hilariousNot selling at 4000, selling at 3000
Can Ethereum reach 3000 USD in October?
Let's first look at one person.
One wallet, dormant for 9 years.
In 2017, it bought 3000 ETH at an average price of 18.80 USD.
For 9 years, it never moved, and recently it woke up.
It sold 2000 ETH at an average price of 3096 USD—not 3000, but 3096.
Take a moment to consider this number.
A holder who has held for 9 years and witnessed all the surges and crashes chose to sell just a little above 3000 USD.
So when the whole network is asking "Can ETH reach 3000?"
Someone has already answered.
His answer is: 3000 is not the place I want to go to, 3000 is the place I want to leave from.
This is not bearish.
This is a person who waited 9 years and finally reached his price.
For someone who bought at 18.80 USD, 3000 USD is already 159 times.
159 times is enough.
So don’t criticize and ask why he didn’t sell at 4000 USD?
There’s one detail you definitely missed.
He only sold 2000 ETH and still holds 1000 ETH.
He got back more than 100 times his principal and still holds a free ticket.
This is not about timing the top.
This is a person who has realized half of a dream, and the remaining half is basically free.
So don’t treat 3000 as a target price; for some, it’s a profit-taking line. $BTC
From the perspective of the major market trend, BTC has a clear support level at 72-75k, a weak support level at 76k, and a support level at 79-82k.
72-74k is a level where the major market trend has repeatedly fallen to in the past, serving as a point for declines or rallies.
76k is a position that the market has tested multiple times during this rally, so the buying pressure here is strong.
The 79-82k range has also been tested many times historically.
More specifically, the top of this rally is at 87k. If it falls to the following three levels, the respective declines are:
- 72-74k: a drop to 72k represents an 18% decline, and a drop to 74k represents a 15% decline
- 76k: a decline of 13%
- 79-82k: a drop to 79k represents a 9.5% decline, and a drop to 82k represents a 6% decline
Learning from history, let's look at the decline patterns from previous bull market starts:
$BTC $ETH $SOON Kids, stop shorting. The long-short ratio of top accounts is 0.56, but the net long-short ratio of top accounts is 1.12, indicating that a small number of top accounts hold the majority of the chips. Meanwhile, retail investors' long-short ratio is 0.4. Do you think this is fuel for a rise? The old whales will only dump when the retail long-short ratio rises; otherwise, with no one to take the other side, the price will keep going up.SNDK 4x full position long, floating loss 10.67%, maintenance margin rate only 2.5%, very little room, a slight further drop could cause problems, cannot hold on stubbornly.
HYPE 4x full position long, lost 35.61%, floating loss amount is large, although the margin rate looks higher than SNDK, if the market continues to decline, losses will expand further.
Both are full position modes, the downside of full position is no buffer, it is recommended to consider reducing positions or setting stop losses, don’t get trapped deeper.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 $FIL VS$AR
FIL has been tugging back and forth around $1, is it bottoming out or a bull trap?
AR has been strengthening steadily, with storage sector funds clearly clustering around AR.
The supply reduction on October 15 is an important milestone, but the positive impact has already been partially priced in; supply contraction does not necessarily mean a guaranteed price increase and still requires real demand support.
FIL has a heavy historical trapped position, making it difficult in the short term to catch up with AR's gains, so be mentally prepared for a prolonged bottoming process.
1.01 is FIL's short-term lifeline; holding this level still qualifies for speculative expectations; once broken, the bottoming logic fails.
There are two completely different stories in this sector: AR is driven by sentiment speculation, while FIL endures on fundamentals. Don't torture your holdings by comparing them to others' gains.
AR is a sentiment-driven cluster with a small market cap, and its market performance heavily depends on narrative heat; FIL is a heavy-asset storage network with a large market cap and heavy selling pressure, relying on protocol upgrades and real business implementation.PHA rose about 23%, but OKX currently only has spot trading, with no corresponding perpetual contracts available for cross-verification of funding rates and open interest.
As of 17:07 Beijing time, OKX spot price is about $0.08257, with a 24-hour high of $0.08271 and a low of $0.06358. The current price is only about 0.2% below the high, with a daily amplitude of about 28.6%, a trading volume of approximately $1.58 million, and an order book spread of about 0.19%.
Another notable conflict is that the trading volume in the past 24 hours is only about 1.2 times the median of the previous seven full 24-hour periods, while the price acceleration is significantly faster than the volume expansion. The current price is already about 16% above the previous 24-hour high of $0.0711.
My judgment is that the price breakout has occurred, but the volume confirmation is not yet sufficient. The easiest misjudgment is to assume no crowding just because there is no negative funding rate; OKX lacks corresponding perpetual contracts and thus lacks open interest and funding rate data, which itself does not prove that the chasing buying is not crowded.
Next, watch $0.08 and $0.0711. If the price holds above $0.08 and trading volume continues to expand, the breakout quality will improve; if it falls back below $0.0711, this rally is more likely a high-volatility pullback rather than a stable gear shift. $PHA PHA's project direction is "TEE Trusted Execution Environment + Privacy Computing + Confidential AI Inference" 1. There is a technical narrative, but it is not a new blue chip Core: running confidential computing, confidential smart contracts, and AI Agent verifiable inference using CPU TEE (Intel SGX/TDX). New narrative: Confidential AI — enterprises/AI applications run models without exposing data. In 2026, it integrated models like DeepSeek and Qwen, with a certain amount of real usage. Competitors: Oasis (ROSE), Secret, iExec (RLC), Akash, Render, as well as confidential computing services from AWS/Azure/GCP. The team continues development and has compliance actions like SOC 2 / HIPAA, so it is not a pure air coin. 2. The token PHA has more critical issues Total supply is 1 billion, with circulation already very high (800 million+). The historical high was about $1.39, now it fluctuates widely between $0.05–0.09, down over 90% from ATH. In September 2026, it surged due to the "AI + Confidential Computing" narrative, but RSI was extremely overbought, representing narrative-driven + small-cap alt volatility, not fundamentals being realized. The biggest risk: enterprise use of Phala Cloud does not mean PHA holders make money. BTC long position with 50x leverage fully loaded, currently showing a very nice floating profit, but the maintenance margin rate is only 1%, extremely risky! If the price drops even slightly, it will directly trigger a forced liquidation, and the profit will instantly go to zero. Do not stubbornly hold on.
SKHY long position with 7x leverage fully loaded, currently floating at nearly 19% loss, position is in full load mode, also need to watch out for risks from further declines.
Overall, the biggest hidden risk is this BTC 50x fully loaded position; profitable trades fear a full retracement the most, so prioritize reducing position or moving stop loss to secure most of the profit.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 Account Position Divergence Radar
$DOGE: The number of top accounts is biased towards long positions, but the position distribution is biased towards short positions: top accounts long-short ratio is 1.635, top positions long-short ratio is 0.763; overall market accounts long-short ratio is 3.443; price increased by 0.23%, position amount changed by +0.49%.
$PEPE: The number of top accounts is biased towards long positions, but the position distribution is biased towards short positions: top accounts long-short ratio is 1.088, top positions long-short ratio is 0.771; overall market accounts long-short ratio is 2.608; price increased by 0.28%, position amount changed by +0.53%.
$XRP: The number of top accounts is biased towards long positions, but the position distribution is biased towards short positions: top accounts long-short ratio is 1.208, top positions long-short ratio is 0.872; overall market accounts long-short ratio is 2.502; price increased by 0.43%, position amount changed by +1.68%.
DOGE, PEPE, XRP: The side with the majority of account numbers is opposite to the side with the majority of positions; there is a divergence between account structure and position distribution; the overall market account structure is biased towards long positions, which also differs from the bias in top positions.$CT is a coin I've been following recently, Concrete, which will be listed for spot trading on OKX at 18:00 tonight.
It's not some shady project that tricks people with charts; it focuses on institutional-grade on-chain asset management, making decentralized finance more user-friendly, efficient, and transparent. The core is an automated vault with risk management that helps institutional funds run yield strategies on-chain.
The institutional backing is very strong. Polychain leads the investment, with VanEck, BitGo, YZi Labs, and Gate Ventures all involved. VanEck is a traditional asset manager known for gold and Bitcoin ETFs, and BitGo is a leading institutional custodian. The fact that these players are all betting on a DeFi protocol speaks volumes.
The data also shows real business activity. The platform's deposit scale exceeds $1.2 billion, cumulative trading volume exceeds $23 billion, there are over 54,000 depositors, and more than 1.2 million signature-verified wallets. CT has a fixed total supply of 1 billion tokens, no inflation; the ecosystem holds 35%, the foundation 15%, the team 22%, and investors 28%. The official statement clearly says there are currently no claims or pre-sale plans, and airdrop details have not been announced yet.
However, there is one issue: liquidity is unstable right after listing, so don't rush to buy as soon as it opens. If you want to play, wait until the market stabilizes and the tokens have circulated for a couple of days. But CT as a target is worth putting on the watchlist. The institutional-grade DeFi infrastructure sector is where real growth is happening in this cycle. #波动雷达：币种异动观察 @OKX星球 HYPE's chart looks sleepy, but those in the know understand that it's precisely at times like this that you need to keep a close watch.
On the afternoon of September 30th, the price was stuck at 86.2, fluctuating less than 0.1% all day, almost as if it didn't move. On the one-hour chart, three moving averages are squeezed around 86, almost tangled together. The price climbed back from 84.8, grinding along the moving averages for several candlesticks, just poking out then retreating again, with neither side giving in. The volume is even clearer: each bar is shorter than the last—the momentum from the previous drop has dissipated, and no one is leading an upward push.
Short-term and long-term are now two separate accounts: down over 7 points in 7 days, short-term funds are withdrawing; but still up nearly 5 points over 30 days, with unrealized gains of 31.83% and 140.99% over 90 and 180 days respectively, so long-term holders haven't left at all.
On the news front, Hyperliquid co-founder Jeff Yan mentioned that private market opportunities with restricted access are significant. The statement was made, but the market didn't respond—daily trading volume was 176 million USDT, with no surge.
Next, all eyes are on $HYPE at the 86 level. Only if it breaks above 87.5 will the rebound take shape; if it falls below 84.8, then it's back to enduring. Until volume picks up, watching the show is better than taking action.Is SHIB about to change trend? Keep an eye on this number! 🚨
SHIB is currently squeezed between 0.00000550 and the downtrend line, so tight it's about to explode, the direction will be chosen soon! 💥 Current price 0.00000589, up 3% in 24h, market cap 3.39 billion. Support at 0.00000550 has held multiple times; if broken, watch 0.00000564 and 0.00000520. Resistance at 0.00000613; only after breaking this will we look at 0.00000620 and 0.00000670. A real breakout of the trend line targets 0.00000720-0.00000730, about 26% upside. 🚀
But don’t get too excited yet: RSI is 61, stochastic indicator divergence, MACD still bearish; historically, such crossovers often lead to an 8%-15% pullback. On-chain bulls and bears are fighting: exchange reserves near 88 trillion, 24h net inflow 75 billion, heavy selling pressure; but holding addresses surged to 1.69 million, 74 billion tokens withdrawn from exchanges, which counts as bullish. 🔥
Macro factors are also holding back: US Treasury yields are high, BTC stuck at 84,000, SHIB struggles to fly independently. Burn rate surged but actual value is just a few hundred dollars, not much impact. Shibarium privacy upgrade and Japan approving SHIB are positives but distant support.
$QNT $ETH $SHIB
In short: watch 0.00000550 closely; only holding above and breaking the trend line gives a chance, otherwise expect continued pullback. Don’t rush to trade, wait for direction! 👀#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 ETH is currently trading around $2,672, up about 11% in September, but the resistance zone between 2,700–2,800 still suppresses it.
Technical aspect: Stuck at resistance, bulls and bears in a stalemate
The upper range of $2,720–2,742 is strong resistance; price increases have been repeatedly rejected in recent days, triggering liquidations of over $96 million long positions. The short-term support is at $2,640; a break below may retest $2,579.
Retail investors are 72.7% long, positions are too crowded, which is a short-term concern.
News aspect: Mixed signals
Bullish: Up about 11% cumulatively in September, potentially the best September performance since 2016. BlackRock's ETF has bought over $1.5 billion worth of ETH in the past 20 days. Staked amount exceeds 43 million ETH, accounting for 35.72% of supply, with circulating supply continuously tightening.
Bearish: On September 29, Ethereum ETF saw a net outflow of $2.8 million, ending 7 consecutive days of inflows. Long-term holders are taking profits; a 9-year-old address sold 2,000 ETH. Whales transferred 112,000 ETH to Bitfinex.
No panic above 2,640, no chasing above 2,742. ETF inflows have just ended, long positions are crowded, and the market is waiting for a signal of a breakout with volume.
$BTC $ETH
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 #OctoberRateHikeOdds October's Fed call may come down to a two-day data handoff 👀
PCE lands Sept 30, then payrolls Oct 2. Hike odds have already swung from nearly 70% toward 50%, showing how little conviction markets have.
What caught my attention is the sequencing. Softer PCE may cool hike bets, but strong jobs could reverse that days later.
The real signal isn't either report alone. It's whether inflation and employment finally tell the Fed the same story.Tonight at 20:30, two data points will be released simultaneously: Core PCE Price Index + Final GDP
PCE is the inflation indicator most closely watched by the Federal Reserve, and GDP directly affects market expectations for rate hikes or cuts
If PCE ≥ 0.4% and GDP exceeds expectations, rate cuts will be delayed further, $BTC is likely to quickly test 82,800; if it doesn't hold, it will test 82,000-82,500
If PCE ≤ 0.2% and GDP is below expectations, inflation cools and the economy weakens, rate cut expectations return
With a rebound on the news, $BTC will first surge to 83,800-84,200; only with strong volume and a stable hold can it challenge 84,900-85,000. $ETH failed to hold 2701 again, I'm numb.
Honestly, I was really excited watching the market this morning. Last night it touched 2701, then at the close it pierced 2745 again, but it all dropped back on me. The candlestick closed ugly, hanging high like someone gasping after running half the race.
Looking at BTC, it rose over 40% this quarter, currently around $83,400, marking the best quarter in nearly two years — yet it still dropped 0.6% today. What does that mean? The quarterly gains are done, but recent buying momentum is fading. The PCE data hasn't come out yet today, and I just want to know if this thing will teach me a lesson again.
Last night I wanted to go long near 2679, but after placing the order I withdrew it because there was no volume, I didn't dare to enter. I'll wait for volume to pick up and for it to hold above 2701 before I act, otherwise I'll look down to 2639 to see if it respects that level. There are too many fake moves here, people on top are likely to get hit today. $BTC $ETH $BTC $ETH $420 million long positions were liquidated, yet the market did not follow through with a one-sided drop; instead, it remains stuck in consolidation waiting for direction.
What’s truly worth watching isn’t the liquidation numbers, but the fact that such massive leverage clearing hasn’t triggered a trend.
Currently, capital is simultaneously waiting for the US-Iran negotiations to conclude and for PCE, non-farm payrolls, and October rate hike expectations to provide answers. The macro variables haven’t diminished; rather, they are piling up, making no one dare to confidently bet on a single direction.
Therefore, at this stage, I’m more inclined to define the market as consolidating; a single spike can’t confirm a trend. Before answers arrive, high volatility doesn’t mean the direction has emerged. It’s safer to wait for data releases and negotiation progress, then follow the structure accordingly. #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 Strive, a US-listed company, cumulatively purchased 6,106 $BTC from August 24 to September 25, at an average price of $80,375 per coin, with a total investment of $490.77 million.
After this round of accumulation, the total holdings are 27,462 BTC, with a weighted average cost of approximately $78,000 per BTC.
2. Source of funds:
The funds for this round of accumulation mainly come from the issuance of SATA perpetual preferred shares, with a small portion from the exercise of stock warrants. SATA requires an annual fixed dividend payment of about 12.75%.
The essence of the model: financing through high-yield perpetual preferred shares to buy BTC, aiming for BTC price appreciation to outperform SATA dividend costs, thereby increasing the number of BTC per share.
85% of the new funds come from SATA preferred share financing.
3. Officially disclosed future plans:
Core goal: continuously accumulate Bitcoin to increase the number of BTC per share.
① Continue to use SATA financing as the main tool
SATA is Strive's core leverage tool; it will continue issuing SATA to raise funds and buy BTC on dips when the market price is favorable.
② No selling of BTC (official commitment)
Since transforming into a BTC treasury company, no BTC has been sold; the strategy is long-term holding without short-term trading or selling of BTC holdings.
③ Dual main lines of capital allocation
Main line: continue increasing BTC holdings
Secondary line: allocate Strategy (MSTR) preferred shares STRC as a same-sector asset allocation to also obtain cash flow incomeBTC support remains stable, but don't rush to chase in the short term
$BTC has consecutively stopped falling three times in the weekly range of 82500–83000, then rebounded, indicating that this support is temporarily effective. However, stable support does not mean a new trend has started. After continuous upward movement, momentum marginally weakens; the current phase looks more like a temporary peak rather than the start of an accelerating trend.
There are two possible paths ahead: one is a direct pullback entering a correction; the other is $ETH first testing 2800 USD, completing a final surge, then weakening in sync with BTC. Therefore, ETH 2800 is a key short-term observation level. If it touches but cannot hold above, beware of exhaustion after a false breakout.
Altcoins have generally risen, but mostly passively driven by ETH, lacking independent momentum, and volume has not increased correspondingly. Rising without volume makes it hard to build strong confidence, so chasing longs has a low cost-performance ratio.
Strategically, do not rush to chase gains; patiently wait for a strong pullback, then look for the next opportunity to enter a bullish trend. At this stage, defense and observation are more important than offense. Focus on whether BTC's weekly support will be tested again and whether ETH shows signs of fatigue after its surge.
$BTC $ETH
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 😂 My TP/SL settings are working perfectly… just not the way I planned.
Every time price gets close to my take-profit, I close the trade early and run. 🏃♂️
But when it hits my stop-loss?
“No problem, let’s add more margin.” 😂😂
At this point, the strategy is basically:
TP = escape
SL = add margin 💀
Crypto trading really does test your discipline more than your technical analysis.
#Crypto #Trading #BTC #OKX The altcoin market is showing weakness again, and volatility is picking up as traders position ahead of the latest inflation data. I’ve opened a short position on $SOON, with the position size kept relatively controlled. If the price rebounds into resistance, I may consider adding gradually rather than entering everything at once. One thing that continues to concern me about $SOON is its very low circulating supply, currently around 3–4%, which can create significant volatility when liquidity isNot just another altcoin concept ETF idling—Bitwise's NEAR spot ETF saw a net inflow of about $35.5 million on its first day.
The first US spot NEAR ETP, Bitwise NEAR ETF (ticker NRR), launched with approximately $36 million in assets under management, a net inflow of about $35.5 million, and trading volume around $15.1 million on day one. Previously, it was stated that the fund planned to internally stake the NEAR it holds to participate in an average staking reward of about 5% (ChainCatcher/Bitwise 9/30; compared to today's on-chain whales and Brazil's XRPL mirror, these are different entities with mainstream products landing NEW: first-day inflow ≠ sustained capital inflow, AUM fluctuates with market, planned internal staking is only a stated plan, about 5% reward is a disclosed figure, not guaranteed; OKX NEAR about 5.08). Not investment advice. Ethena ($ENA) — Standard Chartered's logic breakdown for the $2 target by the end of 2028:
1. Massive expansion of the stablecoin market
Standard Chartered predicts the global stablecoin total market size will grow 7 times in the next 3 years; USDe, as a crypto-native synthetic stablecoin, will capture market share.
USDe's TVL scale continues to expand, driving growth in protocol fees and funding rate income.
2. Fee-Switch implementation is a key catalyst
Once governance passes the Fee-Switch, ENA stakers can capture the protocol's real cash flow.
Standard Chartered assumes: the ENA token will become a yield-capturing asset, no longer just a pure governance token; protocol revenue increases will support token valuation.
3. Narrative of RWA + institutional adoption
USDe can connect with institutional RWAs, on-chain government bonds, and institutional custody; Standard Chartered believes Ethena will become an important choice for institutional crypto dollar assets, bringing incremental TVL.
4. Buyback plan benefits
The project newly launched an ENA buyback mechanism, using part of the protocol income to repurchase ENA, reducing circulating selling pressure and hedging unlocking pressure.
5. Valuation assumptions
Standard Chartered back-calculates the ENA valuation at the end of 2028 based on "USDe TVL growth + protocol revenue growth + token yield capture," arriving at the $2 target.1. Don't rush to bottom-fish when a strong coin falls to a certain stage; after about 9 consecutive days of decline, you can start watching for rebound signals. 2. If the coin price surges for two consecutive days in a short time, don't blindly chase the high; you can moderately reduce your position. 3. If the daily increase exceeds 7%, focus on observing the peak action the next day; don't rush to chase. 4. The stronger the coin, the more you shouldn't rush in just because of a big rise; waiting for a pullback to stabilize is often more comfortable. 5. If there is little fluctuation for three consecutive days, just observe; if after another three days there is still no movement, consider switching targets. 6. If the next day can't even recover the previous day's cost, it means the rhythm is off; if you need to exit, then exit. 7. When continuous trends appear on the gainers list, rhythm changes often occur on the third, fifth, and seventh days; after two consecutive days of gains, wait for a pullback, and focus on taking profits on the fifth day. 8. Always watch trading volume. A volume breakout at a low level is worth attention; if volume is high but price struggles to rise, be cautious of a pullback. 9. Follow the trend; don't fight it. For short-term, watch the 3-day moving average; mid-term, the 30-day; main uptrend, the 80-day; and for long-term, the 120-day moving average. 10. Small funds fear impatience the most. What truly determines whether an account can grow is method, mindset, and execution. Be patient and wait before the opportunity comes. Trading is something where good habits are more effective than any indicator. $BTC $ETH #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新Bitcoin has been consolidating within a descending wedge for 8 days. On the 1-hour chart, it keeps forming lower highs, and each time it touches the upper boundary, it gets pushed back. A downward sloping support line has formed below, with the price repeatedly finding support at the lower boundary. Once a true breakout of this pattern is confirmed and the price holds above the previous range high, there is a high probability of a continued upward move. Currently, support is still found near the fair value gap around 82,800. The resistance encountered yesterday coincides exactly with the intersection of a dense volume area and the descending trendline.
As long as the 82,800 level holds, the overall structure remains bullish. The real confirmation signal is holding above 85,000; once confirmed, the price is likely to continue toward the 90,000 area. This level is emphasized because a large number of sell orders are stacked there, and only a true volume breakout can prove this is not a false breakout.
There is an unusual aspect to this rally—the price is rising while open interest is decreasing. Typically, large rallies are accompanied by increased leverage, but this time it seems more like spot buying is dominating. The continuous accumulation by spot ETFs might be one reason. Additionally, the new narrative of tokenized equity has been developing rapidly recently. The entire crypto industry might be undergoing a valuation reset, with many altcoins indeed experiencing simultaneous explosions.
From the monthly chart perspective, Bitcoin is forming a classic megaphone pattern. Previously, once the central axis resistance was broken, a violent surge would begin. Now it has again reached a similar central axis resistance level. The monthly candle will close in about 10 hours, and if a breakout is confirmed, historical patterns suggest a strong rally is likely to follow.
October is approaching, and historically this month has not been bad for Bitcoin overall. Although last year there was the famous big pullback on October 10, if you look closely, the liquidation scale was even more extreme than it appeared. However, from the overall monthly performance perspective, October historically is not too bad. The funding rate is currently neutral to slightly low, indicating that short positions still dominate the market, especially with many altcoins showing clearly negative funding rates. Historically, this structure often corresponds to subsequent price increases, which is one reason I remain optimistic. The real signal that would make me cautious is a confirmed break below 82,800 on the 4-hour chart; in that case, the next target would be 80,000.
On the Ethereum side, it has clearly been stronger than Bitcoin during this consolidation. The tokenized equity narrative could be a good catalyst for Ethereum, and a major breakout of ETH against Bitcoin is also brewing. Additionally, a heads-up: the U.S. midterm elections will take place in early November. Historically, Bitcoin has experienced a significant pullback during every midterm election. Whether this time will repeat the same script or if the situation is different is a risk point that must be closely watched going forward.$BTC $ETH Monthly Crypto Market Summary (09.30)
Summary:
1. The price behavior of risk assets under the October rate hike and rate hike cycle.
2. U.S. Treasury withdrawals liquidity, unemployment rate is at a cyclical low. Conditions for a U.S. stock market peak are almost met.
3. The Korean Composite Index that no one cares about anymore.
4. $BTC is very likely in the early stage of a bull market, but currently still missing a daily-level pullback.
5. Patiently waiting for the first weekly-level second buy signal in the bull market.
6. The probability of new lows is extremely low, but it is still not recommended to use too much leverage; caution is advised.
Operations:
1. Holding $BTC short positions, close shorts at 69333 and open longs;
2. Holding $ETH short positions, close shorts at 2050 and open longs;
3. Holding $SOL short positions, close shorts at 90 and open longs;
4. Monthly dollar-cost averaging 30,000 yuan into $BTC and 10,000 yuan into $SOL at the end of each month.
My mainstream spot holdings are currently in a buy-only state. For altcoin spot, I sold half on August 30 and the remaining half on September 29; currently, I am fully out of altcoins.
My spot copy trading started in June, and in three months it has only grown about 35%, which is relatively low. But this is reasonable, as altcoin explosions generally concentrate in the mid-to-late bull market, which is expected from late 2027 to the end of 2028, when altcoins will experience a broad rally.
At that time, tenfold or twentyfold gains will be common; before then, doubling overall is already good. #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 $XAG silver is now 60 yuan/gram
100 grams is 6000 yuan
which is the upper limit of the monthly salary for most workers
In other words:
Most workers' wages are less than 2 taels of silver9/30
Bitcoin Intraday Review｜Throughout the day, fluctuating between 82000‑84000 with sideways grinding. Sideways movement is not a waste of time; it is often the calm before the storm.
Three underlying logics:
① The market is quietly awaiting the release of the small non-farm payrolls, non-farm payrolls, and PCE heavyweight data. Large funds remain on the sidelines, unwilling to initiate unilateral moves;
② ETF funds flow in and out intermittently. There is heavy profit-taking pressure near 84000, while support appears at 82000, temporarily balancing bullish and bearish forces;
③ The main players repeatedly pierce the range, cleansing short-term contract chips, continuously wearing down traders' patience.
Tonight, ADP is very likely to break the current consolidation pattern! Many people lose money not because of sharp one-sided drops or surges, but because they can't endure the grinding, losing composure and frequently opening positions. Trading ultimately tests temperament; only those who can endure loneliness can wait for the market to come.
Yingzhen｜Follow the trend without blind obedience, don't stubbornly resist against the trend, discipline first, patiently wait for the market to play out. The future is NEAR.
Bitwise has introduced $NRR — an ETF based on NEAR, giving investors access to a network positioned at the intersection of artificial intelligence and cryptocurrencies.
$NRR became the first spot ETP on $NEAR in the USA.
Separately, Bitwise is betting on its own staking: the company claims the possibility of earning about 5% staking rewards from NEAR.
Why NEAR?
The first reason is the connection with AI.
$NEAR was created with the involvement of researchers who worked on the development of modern artificial intelligence.
Now the team positions the blockchain as a transactional layer for the future agent economy, where AI agents will be able to independently interact with financial systems.
The second factor is NEAR Intents. According to Bitwise, the protocol has already processed over $32 billion in transaction volume. A year ago, this figure was less than $1 billion.
The third feature is cross-chain interaction. NEAR Intents uses smart contracts to conduct transactions between different networks, trying to reduce risks associated with centralized bridges.
Another argument is scalability.
NEAR transactions finalize in about 1.2 seconds, and their cost is only fractions of a cent.
Tokenomics is also important. According to Bitwise, NEAR's market capitalization is about $6 billion, all tokens are already unlocked, and the annual inflation was recently halved to 2.5%.
For the crypto market, the appearance of an ETF on NEAR is important not only as a new investment product. It is a signal that traditional financial companies are beginning to view blockchain infrastructure through the lens of the future AI economy.
If AI agents really become new economic participants, they will need infrastructure for payments, asset exchange, and interaction between different blockchains.
This is the role NEAR is trying to take on today.
At the same time, the ETF does not guarantee NEAR's price growth, and staking yield does not eliminate market risks. But the appearance of $NRR shows that institutional access to NEAR is moving to a new level.
The next phase of competition may take place not just between blockchains, but between networks capable of becoming the financial infrastructure for autonomous AI agents.Tonight's US August PCE report, $BTC $ETH $ZEC may experience significant volatility, be careful not to overcommit, wait for the results to clarify the direction before taking action.
Current market expectations:
* Core PCE monthly rate: +0.3%, previous +0.2%
* Core PCE annual rate: 3.3%, expected to be basically the same as previous
* Overall PCE monthly rate: +0.4%, annual rate about 3.7%.
① Core PCE ≤0.2%
This is a relatively positive outcome. It indicates inflation pressure has not continued to rise, the market may reprice rate cut expectations, the dollar and US Treasury yields are likely to fall back, and risk assets like gold, BTC, and ETH may receive short-term support.
② Core PCE = 0.3%
Basically meets expectations, the market will most likely first watch the market reaction. Since US Treasury yields are already high, with the 10-year yield recently exceeding 5.2%, even meeting expectations may not immediately trigger a strong rally.
③ Core PCE ≥0.4%
This calls for caution. It means inflation is more stubborn than expected, the market may further price in the Fed maintaining high rates or even raising rates again, increasing upward pressure on the dollar and Treasury yields, and gold and crypto markets may face short-term pressure. The market is already highly sensitive to further rate hikes. #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 【5000 U Challenge 10000 U｜Dual Currency Yield Real Trading Diary】
Day 15
Starting Capital: 5000U
Current Capital: 5049.92U
Cumulative Profit: +49.92U (+1.00%)
Today's Profit: +0.38U (+0.00%)
📝 Market Review
On the eve of the non-farm payroll data, the market overall entered a low-volume wait-and-see mode, with the main market fluctuating narrowly. Both bulls and bears dared not launch major attacks. $BTC oscillated back and forth between 83000 and 84200, with small bearish and bullish candles alternating repeatedly. Frequent wicks appeared, volatility was suppressed, and the market awaited the evening data release to determine direction.
Macro pressures have not eased: Middle East geopolitical tensions and October rate hike expectations continue to hang over the market, driving strong risk aversion. Major coins remain in consolidation, altcoins show weak rotation, thematic coins have limited rebound strength, and the market is reluctant to bet on direction early. The market's profit-making effect is weak.
Today's Operations:
No new large dual currency yield orders were opened today; only 15% of funds were allocated to Friday options, with 20% held as cash flow bullets. Approaching the non-farm data, I don't want to lock all chips; priority is to keep cash flow flexible to handle two-way wicks after data release.
Previously matured dual currency yields continue to bring small amounts of coin-based and U-based interest, slowly diluting spot position costs.
Continuing the plan of phased low buying, gradually accumulating chips in small amounts rather than heavy bottom-fishing in one go.
Small position of $xSOXS is still held, controlled within 5% of total funds, neither cutting losses nor adding positions, patiently observing.
Keeping sufficient cash bullets reserved, as tonight's non-farm volatility will be amplified, to guard against sweeping risks up or down.
Position Status 📊
Spot base positions have been gradually established, with ample cash reserves, allowing flexibility to advance or retreat.
$BTC: Box range oscillation, key support at 82900, resistance at 84800, waiting for non-farm to choose direction.
$ETH: Moves with BTC but with greater elasticity; volatility will be more intense after data release.
$ZEC: Weakening after positive news realization, following overall market sentiment, waiting for new catalysts.
💡 Today's Insight
The account was almost flat today, earning a negligible 0.38U, which is typical before major news.
Many want to pre-position to bet on rises or falls before non-farm, but two-way wicks sweeping stop losses are normal.
The most important now is not how much is earned today, but to arrange positions and cash properly and prepare for both market scenarios.
Whether a surge or a plunge, holding cash prevents being passive.
Do not predict outcomes; wait for the market to show real signals before acting. Protecting principal is more important than short-term speculative gains.
⚠️ Personal real trading record only, not investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile; please DYOR and trade rationally.
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 $AAVE AAVE 30-minute level (long at 159.54)
This ID's view: Attempting to go long near the lower edge of the descending pivot at 159.54, which is like reaching out for a rebound red envelope on a downhill slope. The overall structure is defined as a downtrend continuation; this trade is a counter-trend gamble, and I am prepared for the market to tug back and forth, testing my mindset.
Entry: This is not a standard second or third buy bullish opportunity, purely betting on support holding near the low pivot (ZD). It is a preemptive test position without waiting for volume confirmation, so the margin for error is limited.
Stop loss: Short-term defense is placed below the recent minor pullback low; the ultimate defense level is ZD=159.1. If the price breaks below this level, the support is invalidated.
Chan Theory structure:
From the high at 176.24, it has fallen to form the first 30-minute downtrend pivot, with resistance (ZG) around 165.0 and support (ZD) around 159.1. To reverse the bearish pattern, the price must hold above and break through ZG; if it breaks below ZD and makes a new low, the downtrend structure will continue.
Wyckoff volume-price observation:
The high at 176.24 showed a new high with reduced volume and a long upper shadow, a typical high-level distribution signal. The main down phase had full bearish candles with heavy volume selling pressure. Near 159.54, the selling volume has somewhat contracted, and selling pressure has temporarily eased, but there is no strong volume surge with bullish candles to confirm absorption by the main force; it is just a brief pause in selling, not accumulation.
Key observation points:
Currently, the rebound is within the pivot; the focus is on whether volume can surge to challenge ZG. If it breaks below 159.1, the rebound expectation is invalidated, and the bullish view should be abandoned. 🔥 7U Challenge 100 Million | Day 39 Starting from 7U, the goal is 100 million U. Currently, my account assets are about 3700U, including about 2600U spent on living expenses, and I still have 1,000U+ funds available to continue operating. I've been adjusting my positions gradually these past few days. I barely checked my computer all day, and my phone usage was less than 30 minutes. Anyone doing crypto must pay attention to their health. Long-term monitoring of the market, data reading, and chain scanning are quite stressful and eye-strained. Before making money, make sure you can stay in this market for the long term. 📌 Currently, focus mainly on these directions: 1️⃣ $BTC Still holding long positions, continuing to monitor main positions. 2️⃣ $PUMP Fundamentals and recent trend are relatively good, so keep small positions for long positions and won't aggressively increase positions for now. 3️⃣ $PONS Currently, fundamental appeal has declined, and revenue performance is clearly weaker than before, so it will not be placed on the same level as PUMP for now. 4️⃣ ENA is focusing on further news about entering the stock perpetual market, while also monitoring USDE's growth rate. 5️⃣ ONDO remains one of the RWA projects worth watching, but the actual application scenarios of the token itself still require further observation. 6️⃣ Tether Gold / RWA has performed well recently; the focus will be on whether new entrants are entering, especially more RWA issuers. Recently tried it as wellWith Data Week approaching, the broader crypto market remains cautious. Volatility has compressed, and traders appear more interested in protecting capital than chasing short-term moves. For now, the focus remains on key support and resistance levels across BTC, ETH, and ZEC. $BTC — 84,120 BTC has stabilized after testing the 83,000 area and is now moving sideways. RSI is around 47, while MACD remains slightly below the zero line, showing that momentum has not fully shifted bullish. Resistance: $OKB today +2.07% OKX, it alone rises while the whole market falls.
OKB is the strongest independent trend today. The crypto market changed today, BTC -3.35%, ETH -6%, but OKB pushed to 120. Behind this is the incremental fees from X Layer + OKX buyback stabilization. A 76% buy ratio is a platform token's defense indicator.
It moves independently because its path is not tied to the overall market. OKX launched X Layer gas token function, 3-MEX quasi-spot ETF, and OKX Jumpstart this week, all stacking buybacks; but all are exchange businesses, not asset businesses. The logic is "platform fee tokens are the valuation ceiling."
OKB is a "platform voucher, not an asset." If $118 is lost, halve your position; if $122 holds, look to $125; if $114 breaks, clear your position. After the market changes, it can move independently, but note that fundamentals have not changed. Whales going all-in is not your template
The market sees Big Brother Maji adding positions again. $150 million in perpetual contracts, all long positions, $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL launching together with no hedging. The position size rose from $93 million to $150 million, and leverage has also stepped up. BTC holds the line, ETH bears the heavy load, SOL charges with elasticity, but the risk factors of the three overlap heavily; when the market is favorable, they all fly together, and when it turns against them, they all crash together.
Tonight, PCE, non-farm payrolls, and Federal Reserve speeches come one after another. When US Treasury yields twitch, the net value shakes accordingly. The market's attempt to rally lacks strength and the pullback seems to be testing his margin line. His old method is to tough it out, add margin, and wait it out. Whales have the ammunition and can afford to endure.
Ordinary people shouldn't take this as a signal. You don't have the confidence to keep adding positions infinitely; blindly copying a fully exposed one-sided position is like using your salary to catch someone else's chips. Watching the show is fine, but copying the homework is deadly. Position size should first consider fault tolerance before discussing direction.
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 Tonight at 20:30, the US August personal income, spending, and PCE data will be released, along with the third estimate of US Q2 GDP. Ajian will now walk everyone through a preliminary analysis of this small macro data package. First, the headline PCE itself is not the most important focus; ordinary traders only need to pay attention to whether the core PCE, consumer spending, and GDP revisions collectively indicate that "demand is still too strong." If the answer is yes, the Federal Reserve will find it hard to relax.
So tonight, focus directly on three things:
Has the core PCE continued to decline?
Has consumer spending noticeably cooled down?
Does the third GDP estimate continue to show strong US demand?
If inflation is high, consumption is strong, and GDP is stable: the market may continue to price in high interest rates;
If inflation falls, consumption weakens, and GDP is also weak: expectations for rate cuts may have room to expand again#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键