#FOMCRateCallThisWeek

#FOMCRateCallThisWeek A Fed hike is almost fully priced. That makes the surprise more interesting 👀 86 of 101 economists expect 25bps, while markets put the odds near 90%. With PPI at 5.4% YoY and CPI up 0.4% MoM, the Fed has cover to move. What caught my attention is the asymmetry. A hike may barely surprise markets. A hold could force the Fed to explain why inflation isn't translating into tighter policy, and trigger the bigger move across yields, gold and BTC.

5% just became crypto’s most expensive number. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield crossed 5% for the first time since October 2023, while Brent trades near $107 and markets lean heavily toward a Fed hike Wednesday. When “risk-free” money pays 5%, capital has to fight harder for every dollar. Crypto’s next battle may be happening in the bond market, not on-chain. Image suggestion — separate: U.S. Treasury/bond-yield chart showing the 10-year crossing 5%, from today’s coverage #FOMCRateCallThisWeek

9.15｜BTC and ETH Morning Session Thoughts The FOMC day strategy is very clear: mainly short at high levels, never chase longs before the decision is announced $BTC is currently around 77800-78200, after rising from 76400 to 79600 on Monday, it was pushed back. The issue is not the candlestick but that the rate hike is almost fully priced in, longs are still betting on "hawkish to dovish" after the hike, and funding rates remain positive. The biggest risk in this structure is not the rate hike

⚠️ $BTC / $ETH — FOMC DECISION ZONE $BTC is hovering near $78K after rejection from ~$79.6K. $ETH is around $2.5K after failing near $2.6K. The key risk isn’t just the rate decision — it’s the dot plot and Powell’s guidance. 📉 BTC: $78.8K–$79.8K resistance → $76K/$74.5K 📉 ETH: $2.56K–$2.62K → $2.48K/$2.42K 🔥 $BTC reclaiming $80K with volume invalidates the bearish setup. FOMC = volatility. Trade the confirmation, not the prediction#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #AIAnxietyHitsChipStocks

🚨 THE FED MEETS AS BTC HOLDS ~$77K. The FOMC meeting starts today, with markets heavily focused on the rate decision. BTC isn't just waiting for volatility. The bigger signal is what happens after the decision: does capital return to risk assets — or does the pressure continue?

Super week is here, what is the market really trading? Many think the market is waiting for a rate hike, but the rate hike has already been mostly priced in on the charts. What is being traded now is whether September will mark the start of a new tightening cycle. If this rate hike is 25BP and the dot plot shows further tightening potential within the year, then risk assets need to be repriced.#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #AnthropicIPOOnNasdaq #TrumpAcceptsNewEthics

Fed hike odds are near 87%. Sept 16 at 2PM is the moment. If delivered, it would be the first hike under Warsh and the Fed's first since 2023. After holding at 3.50%-3.75% in July with a 9-3 vote, the FOMC heads into this week almost fully priced for a 25bps hike. August CPI rose 0.4% MoM, core CPI came in hotter than expected at 0.3%, and PPI rose 5.4% YoY. Energy remains part of the pressure. Three members already dissented in favor of a hike last time. The political backdrop is loud: · Trump has renewed calls for lower rates · Hassett said the White House would accept the Fed's decision, while arguing inflation is decelerating · Several Wall Street desks shifted toward a September hike call But the bigger question is communication. Warsh has stripped back forward guidance since taking the chair, and his decision not to submit his own dot in June was an unusual break from recent Fed practice. September brings a fresh dot plot, but the statement may again leave fewer explicit hints. Markets may have to decode the press conference in real time. One contrarian read: Brookings' Robin Brooks argues a hike here may be less about classic tightening and more about anchoring the 10-year yield and restoring credibility. If that is right, the crypto impact may depend more on yields and the dollar than on the headline rate move. BTC trades around $77K, below the $80K area it failed to hold in recent attempts. US spot BTC ETFs have seen four straight sessions of outflows, even though September remains net positive so far. The rate decision matters. The dot plot and what Warsh says after may matter more. Which matters more for BTC this week: the rate decision, the dot plot, or Warsh's press conference? #FOMCRateCallThisWeek

$BTC This week's FOMC announcement is out. Will the rate hike actually happen? Currently, the most likely scenario is that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25bp. This could have a significant impact, causing a sharp drop in risk assets like $BTC and $ETH. At the same time, the US dollar is expected to strengthen

A September rate hike now seems almost unavoidable . How will the prices of $BTC $ETH , and $OKB move in the future? Does a rate hike necessarily lead to a price drop? I don't think so. Historically, it mainly depends on whether the hike meets expectations. The current price has already priced in the rate hike expectation. If the Fed raises rates by more than 25 basis points this month, prices will fall sharply. Otherwise, it should be fine.#PPI、CPI公布后，多家机构上调9月加息预期

$BTC / $ETH Sometimes the strongest signal isn't a huge breakout. It's how an asset behaves when the market gets uncomfortable. $BTC is holding around $77K while macro pressure is building ahead of the Fed meeting. $ETH is sitting around $2.5K and still trying to prove that its recent strength wasn't just another short-term rotation. That's what I'm watching. Not just green candles. I want to see which assets can absorb selling without completely losing structure. Anyone can look strong when everything is going up. The real information comes when the market gets tested. #FOMCRateCallThisWeek #AnthropicIPOOnNasdaq #TrumpAcceptsNewEthics