#LaborMarketTestsWalsh

#就业数据密集公布، يتم اختبار موقف والش السياسي بعد خطاب واش، كيف سيتحرك السوق؟ ما هي الفرص المتاحة لدينا؟ بمجرد أن بدأت كلمات واش، حطم توقعات الكثيرين لخفض أسعار الفائدة. كل تلك الأحلام المتعلقة بتخفيض أسعار الفائدة في عهد باول، بصراحة، أصبحت كلها سحاما عابرة. تحدث هذا الرجل بحزم، قائلا بشكل أساسي إن التضخم لا ينخفض بسرعة كافية وأن الاحتياطي الفيدرالي قد يرفع أسعار الفائدة في أي وقت. السوق حقيقي—احتمالية رفع سعر الفائدة في سبتمبر ارتفعت إلى النصف، وتحولت المشاعر إلى تشديد السيولة. في الواقع، إذا راقبت سوق الأسهم الأمريكي عن كثب، ستجد أن الأزمة مكتوبة بالفعل في الخلفية. سجل مؤشر S&P 500 مستوى قياسي للتو، لكن الشراء أصبح مركزا بشكل متزايد، مع تحقيق التفاوت بين السعر ونطاق السوق وهو رقم قياسي منذ ما يقرب من ثلاثين عاما. الجزء الأكثر فكاهة هو أولئك الذين يتبعون الاتجاه ويشجعون الذكاء الاصطناعي. في السابق، حتى الخنازير كانت تطير في السماء، لكن الآن بعد أن هدأ فترة التهدئة قليلا، قام الكثيرون برحلة مليئة بالتقلبات على أسهم الأجهزة—حيث لم تتح الأرباح غير المحققة على الورق فرصة للسحب وتم رمي الأرباح فورا. الجميع يتساءل، إذا انتهت النهاية من طرف واحد، على ماذا سيعتمدون لكسب المال في المستقبل؟ فكر في الأمر: أكبر محرمات في هذا النوع من التذبذبات عالية المستوى هي رمي كل رقائقك في اتجاه واحد. مؤخرا، تحدثت مع عدة متداولين، وهم في الواقع أعادوا طرح "محفظة براون الدائمة" القديمة. هذا المنطق بسيط للغاية: الأسهم، السندات طويلة الأجل، البيتكوين، والنقد كل منها تحتفظ بربع دولار، ثم تسوي الحسابات وتعيد التوازن. الجزء الأكثر تطرفا في هذه الآلية هو أنها تستخدم نظاما لإجبارك على البيع بسعر مرتفع وشراء بسعر منخفض: عندما تخرج الأصول عن السيطرة، بع قليلا؛ وعندما تنخفض بشكل سيء، تشتري في الأسفل.

Bitcoin Is Near $79K. The Next 5 Days Could Decide What Comes Next. $BTC is entering one of the most important macro weeks of the current market. Bitcoin is trading around the $78K area after recovering from the recent sell-off. But the market is now facing a much bigger catalyst. The U.S. jobs report. The August Nonfarm Payrolls report is scheduled for Friday, September 4. And this time, the number could have a direct impact on expectations for the Federal Reserve's next decision. That makes the next few days more important than they might look. 🟠 $BTC IS STUCK BETWEEN TWO FORCES Bitcoin recently pushed above $81K before reversing sharply toward $77K. The $77K area has so far acted as important support. But $80K remains a major psychological and technical barrier. So the current structure is simple: $77K is where buyers need to defend. $80K is where bulls need to reclaim. $81K is where the previous rally peaked. Until one of these levels breaks decisively, Bitcoin is still inside a range. The problem is that macro conditions are becoming more important. 🏦 THE FED JUST CHANGED THE EQUATION Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish message at Jackson Hole. Markets reacted quickly. The implied probability of a September rate hike reportedly increased to around 57%. The U.S. dollar strengthened. Treasury yields moved higher. And risk assets came under pressure. That creates a difficult environment for $BTC. Bitcoin has benefited significantly from expectations of easier financial conditions. If markets start pricing tighter monetary policy instead, liquidity becomes less supportive. But there is another side to the story. The Fed now has to look closely at the labor market. And that is where Friday's jobs report becomes critical. 📊 THE JOBS REPORT COULD CHANGE EVERYTHING The August U.S. employment report is scheduled for September 4. The previous report showed a weak labor market. July payroll employment declined by 23,000, while unemployment remained at 4.1%. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation

$BTC : The Risk Signal Is Turning Red Walsh’s hawkish stance has pushed September rate-hike expectations higher. With restrictive rates likely to persist, risk assets are facing a tougher macro backdrop. Next week’s Non-Farm Payrolls and PCE data could become the catalyst. Any major disappointment may trigger a sharp risk-off move. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation

[Pharaoh’s Market Watch] This week is loaded with key employment data, and the big question is: after Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech, can $BTC hold the $80K level? 👀 Pharaoh’s view is straightforward: the economic data keeps coming in stronger, putting Warsh’s hawkish stance under increasing pressure from the labor market. Now the focus shifts to this week’s releases. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults

🚨 Wash says "interest rate hike," trying to scare BTC off? Don't rush. Wash emphasizes inflation risk, with expectations of a rate hike in September heating up, the crypto community's first reaction is simple: Dollar strengthens → risk assets under pressure → BTC gets hit short-term. But this feels more like a macro sentiment shock, not a sudden deterioration in BTC's fundamentals.#WalshInflationRisk #BTCGoldCorrelation #SchwabExpandsCrypto

📊 [Pharaoh’s Market Watch] This week brings a heavy schedule of U.S. employment data. Following Wash’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech, the key question for Bitcoin is whether $BTC can continue holding the $80K level. 👀 The latest economic figures have been coming in stronger, giving Wash more reason to maintain a hawkish stance. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults

#WalshInflationRisk Walsh didn’t commit to a September hike at Jackson Hole, but the market clearly heard a warning 🏛️ He said inflation remains above 2%, financial conditions are not restrictive and the labor market is still near full employment. He also pushed back on forward guidance, keeping short-term rates as the Fed’s main policy tool. What stood out to me is how quickly expectations shifted without an explicit promise. September hike odds rose from around 35% to nearly 58%, while the two-year yield moved from 4.22% to 4.35%. Stocks, gold and BTC all fell afterward 📉 To me, this wasn’t a clear signal that a hike is coming. It was a reminder that the Fed doesn’t believe the inflation problem is finished—and doesn’t want markets assuming the path is already decided. September now feels less about one speech and more about which incoming data point breaks the balance first.

[Pharaoh’s Market Watch] This week is loaded with key employment data, and the big question is: after Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech, can $BTC hold the $80K level? 👀 Pharaoh’s view is straightforward: the economic data keeps coming in stronger, putting Warsh’s hawkish stance under increasing pressure from the labor market. Now the focus shifts to this week’s releases. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #SchwabExpandsCrypto

[Pharaoh’s Market Watch] This week brings a heavy schedule of U.S. employment data. Following Wash’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech, the key question for Bitcoin is whether $BTC can continue holding the $80K level. 👀 The latest economic figures have been coming in stronger, giving Wash more reason to maintain a hawkish stance. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults

🚨 The biggest market shock of the week hasn’t even happened yet… 😅 #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 JOLTS, ADP, jobless claims… and then Friday brings the big one: Nonfarm Payrolls. 📊 The market is basically getting hit with one employment report after another, so honestly, I wouldn’t expect much calm this week. Walsh has already made it clear that inflation remains a priority. If the labor market stays strong, the hawks have more reason to remain tough. #DailyOrbit

Bitcoin Is Near $79K. The Next 5 Days Could Decide What Comes Next. $BTC is entering one of the most important macro weeks of the current market. Bitcoin is trading around the $78K area after recovering from the recent sell-off. But the market is now facing a much bigger catalyst. The U.S. jobs report. The August Nonfarm Payrolls report is scheduled for Friday, September 4#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BroadcomDellAIResults