#FOMCRateCallThisWeek

Crypto just got another reality check. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points, and the reaction in crypto was immediate. $BTC → swung around the $75K–$76K area $ETH → moved between roughly $2.37K and $2.43K $SOL → was slightly higher after the decision. What caught my attention isn't just the rate hike. It's how differently these assets are reacting to the same environment. Bitcoin is dealing with macro pressure. Ethereum is trying to hold its position while risk appetite changes. Solana is still attracting attention despite the broader uncertainty. This is why I don't look at crypto as one single market. Three assets can face the same headline and still tell three different stories. Now I'm watching the reaction after the initial volatility. The first move gets attention. The next move usually tells you more. #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #FOMCRateCallThisWeek

This time it's really different. Originally, the market was still betting on "no change," but in the past few days expectations suddenly reversed, and now the market has priced in a 25 basis point rate hike at a very high level. On September 15-16, the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting will take place. What’s really worth watching is not "whether to raise rates," but: after the rate hike, will they continue to raise?#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates

“CLARITY Act won’t pass, so $BTC is going to dump further.” “FOMC is expected to hike rates tomorrow, so BTC will dump even harder.” What they’re missing is that markets price in expectations before the news actually hits. That’s why BTC is selling off ahead of the announcements. By the time the headlines give everyone a reason to sell, the market may have already absorbed the move—and those late sellers could simply be selling into the bids that form the bottom. #FOMCRateCallThisWeek

92.4%! Markets are heavily pricing a 25bp September rate hike. The bigger risk is what comes next: October expectations are also pointing toward further tightening, keeping pressure on liquidity and risk assets. For $BTC and $ETH, the key isn’t just the hike—it’s the Fed’s guidance. A hawkish tone could add selling pressure, while a less-hawkish message may ease some of the pressure. #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates

FED DAY THE 25BPS ISN’T THE REAL STORY Markets are heavily pricing a 25bps hike to 3.75%–4.00%. The real focus: • Dot Plot • Vote split • Warsh’s wording Hawkish guidance could pressure risk assets. A softer “calibration” message could support them. $BTC is already defensive near $76K, with heavy ETF outflows and liquidations. 2:00 PM ET: Fed decision. 2:30 PM ET: Warsh presser. Watch the reaction closely.$ETH $ZEC @OKX中文 @OKX成长学院 #FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #DailyOrbit

🚨 $BTC ENTERS THE FED DECISION WITH $75K IN FOCUS Bitcoin is hovering near $75.8K after yesterday’s sharp sell-off, with markets pricing around a 93% chance of a 25-bps Fed hike today. The bigger question is the Fed’s guidance. A hawkish tone could pressure risk assets, while softer signals may shift market sentiment quickly. #FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49

BTC AND GOLD ARE WAITING ON THE FED $BTC is hovering around $75.8K after the recent crypto pullback, with the Senate’s CLARITY Act setback adding another layer of uncertainty. Gold is telling a different story, reclaiming $4,300/oz as Treasury yields and oil cool ahead of the Fed decision. Two different markets, one major catalyst. The next move may come from the Fed so I’m watching the reaction, not trying to predict it. #FOMCRateCallThisWeek

Fed hike odds are near 87%. Sept 16 at 2PM is the moment. If delivered, it would be the first hike under Warsh and the Fed's first since 2023. After holding at 3.50%-3.75% in July with a 9-3 vote, the FOMC heads into this week almost fully priced for a 25bps hike. August CPI rose 0.4% MoM, core CPI came in hotter than expected at 0.3%, and PPI rose 5.4% YoY. Energy remains part of the pressure. Three members already dissented in favor of a hike last time. The political backdrop is loud: · Trump has renewed calls for lower rates · Hassett said the White House would accept the Fed's decision, while arguing inflation is decelerating · Several Wall Street desks shifted toward a September hike call But the bigger question is communication. Warsh has stripped back forward guidance since taking the chair, and his decision not to submit his own dot in June was an unusual break from recent Fed practice. September brings a fresh dot plot, but the statement may again leave fewer explicit hints. Markets may have to decode the press conference in real time. One contrarian read: Brookings' Robin Brooks argues a hike here may be less about classic tightening and more about anchoring the 10-year yield and restoring credibility. If that is right, the crypto impact may depend more on yields and the dollar than on the headline rate move. BTC trades around $77K, below the $80K area it failed to hold in recent attempts. US spot BTC ETFs have seen four straight sessions of outflows, even though September remains net positive so far. The rate decision matters. The dot plot and what Warsh says after may matter more. Which matters more for BTC this week: the rate decision, the dot plot, or Warsh's press conference? #FOMCRateCallThisWeek

Crypto Market Update Sept. 15 Crypto is turning defensive ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC decision, while the CLARITY Act just suffered a major Senate setback. $BTC around $76K–$77K $76K is the key floor. Lose it decisively and downside risk increases. Reclaim $78K, then $80K, and the structure improves.#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates